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2015 Dayton Area CRE Market Trends

March 18, 2015 / By Dave Dickerson, President/Partner

In 2015, there are several emerging hotspots and trends identified in the Dayton Region that are expected to draw attention in the coming year and beyond.

Hot property types in commercial real estate include industrial, healthcare, retail, multifamily and mixed-use developments which are all expected to be the big players in 2015.  Conversely, the office market will continue to recover during 2015 at a moderate pace as owners aggressively lease vacant spaces and properties are re-positioned.

Some hot locations in the region include the North Market (along I-70 and I-75), which is expected to see expanding growth due to the specialized manufacturing and logistics markets. In South and Southeast Dayton, areas along I-75 and I-675 are expected to continue to prosper especially near the Wilmington Pike interchange, with Oberer’s “Cornerstone” Development and at Austin Boulevard with RG Properties “Austin Landing” development.

Medical campuses like Miami Valley South Hospital along Wilmington Pike and the Good Samaritan campuses in the north and northwest markets are also expected to see growth as these campuses continued planned expansions.

Finally, the urban area near downtown including the Water Street, Webster Street Station and Oregon Districts, as well as the new development around UD and UD’s Innovation Park will continue to see growth in 2015.

The industrial market has seen a comeback with the growth of existing companies and several new-to-the-market. The vacancy rates in the industrial market have dropped to nearly 15% since the recession. One of the challenges in this market is the increasing demand for all industrial product types.  Coupled with a limited supply, we have found increases in both rental rates and prices. This is expected to possibly lead to new construction options, as companies search for a higher quality of space and owners feel more confident in the economy and a willingness to invest in future growth.

Urbanization is likely to continue its evolution in Dayton, which is being led by trending consumer market segments like the Millennials (18-35-year-olds), DINK’s (Dual Income – No Kids) and Empty Nesters.  The Millennial generation likes flexibility so renting living space is anticipated to be more desirable, which explains the increase in multi-family developments and conversions. Urbanization trends also include a “Sense of Place” with an attraction to non-traditional residential, office and commercial spaces, trendy retail, restaurants, and entertainment concepts, and easy and convenient commutes.

Overall, the Dayton market will continue to recover but at a pace that lags behind other large Ohio cities like Cincinnati and Columbus. There will be continued retail and entertainment growth as the rising confidence of consumers and businesses leads to increased employment and spending. The recovery process in Dayton is expected to continue and even quicken in 2015 with upcoming hopeful projects with Fuyao and P&G.

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About the author:

Dave Dickerson is President/Partner for Miller-Valentine Group.

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